General Motors on Thursday became the first U.S. automaker to put a dollar figure on the cost of Trump’s tariffs: $4 billion to $5 billion in 2025. But the answer to the bigger question—whether these steep penalties will compel GM to move a more meaningful chunk of its vehicle production back to the homeland—remains as vague as ever.

General Motors Co. lowered its full-year profit outlook, just two days after suspending earnings guidance, citing exposure to as much as $5 billion in auto tariffs being levied by President Donald Trump.