Israel may now be more willing to risk war with Iran after the barrage earlier this month targeted civilian areas in addition to military ones. The longstanding framework of deterrence appears to have collapsed, leaving each country in danger of misjudging the other’s response and overstepping at each turn.

The two countries have been fighting a shadow war for years. But direct attacks are bringing direct reprisals, or at least plans for them.

The low-boil conflict between Israel and Iran has shaped the Middle East for decades. Of the many conflicts that have roiled the region, theirs has long been among the most explosive. The two have attacked each other — mostly quietly and in Iran’s case often by proxy — while avoiding an escalation into direct war.

Israel’s imminent strike on Iran is exacerbating Tehran’s economic woes. Iranian currency and stocks slid this week, while international airlines canceled flights, the Financial Times reported, as Israel gears up to retaliate against Iran’s missile attack earlier this month.