Rather, it is geopolitical factors—specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East—that are unsettling markets and pushing prices higher.

Entering the meeting, markets are pricing two interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, in line with the central bank's median dot plot projection from March. But since then, there have been significant changes to tariff policy, which will put any updates to the Fed's outlook in particular focus.

Analysts said OPEC might not see any urgency to shift policy, as the surge in prices was driven by a rising risk premium rather than changing market fundamentals.

Oil prices fell off multi-month highs hit earlier on Friday as Israeli air strikes avoided Iranian oil sites, but prices still up about 6% as investors worried that the tensions could disrupt Middle East oil supplies.

Israel and Iran bombarded each other for a third day, with international concern growing that the conflict will spread across one of the world’s key oil-producing regions.

President Donald Trump said the United will come down on Iran “at levels never seen before” if the Middle Eastern country attacks.

Keep an eye out for signs of labor-market weakness, as well as the risk that rising oil prices could put more upward pressure on inflation.

Trump told ABC News that Iran wanted to make a deal and indicated something like the Israel strikes would accelerate that. "Something like this had to happen because I think even