Some analysts have estimated that ultimately some 177,000 jobs in the U.S. would be cut after Trump announced his first round of tariffs February. Goldman Sachs noted last week in a report that the president’s tariffs would likely create about 100,000 manufacturing jobs, while also killing up to 500,000 jobs across all industries.

“The global economic system under which most countries have operated for the last 80 years is being reset, ushering the world into a new era,” the financial agency wrote in a blog post. The IMF noted the flurry of tariffs Trump has levied or threatened against hundreds of countries and major trade partners.

Allianz economists are forecasting that the unemployment will rise to 5% by early 2026, though mass layoffs aren't expected as inflation raises consumer prices due to Trump's tariffs.